Premier League · resolved market
Will Spurs vs. Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04cd645d9b4b1d810580af7f56b1babca6dbfe16124fd7e9173bea5234beda3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 25c | 3,288$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…69fbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,208$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 77c | 1,025$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.03 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Yes | 23c | 952.3$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 25c | 697.91$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.48 | 253 | 29.2%74 W · 179 L | +11.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…be44backed Yes | 32c | 370.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Yes | 11c | 358.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 68c | 306.18$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Yes | 50c | 281.11$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 35c | 280$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 36c | 197.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…7f9bbacked No | 78c | 146.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 75c | 145.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 75c | 144.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked No | 65c | 102.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 30c | 100.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50de…2266backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 42c | 83.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked No | 76c | 81.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…38e7backed Yes | 25c | 80.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 78.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…a1e0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a4…25a6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…7da0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…9f19backed No | 78c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…87f9backed Yes | 40c | 35.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…8260backed No | 55c | 35.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 75c | 34.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 69c | 32.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2c98backed No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…17dbbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…9505backed No | 78c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spurs vs. Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Spurs win on 2024-11-03?Yes won
- Will Villa win on 2024-11-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.