Fifa International · resolved market
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04cee81a0873472aa0df64cacfd7d0df3ed665db694c351fec1e64c7b3b8ed07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 74c | 1,854$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.21 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,458$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 70c | 679.52$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.86 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked No | 73c | 645.34$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…4d84backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…3f71backed Yes | 29c | 343.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 19.6%44 W · 180 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4453backed Yes | 27c | 339.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e2…d8f6backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f78…c04fbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 291.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 261.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked No | 71c | 224.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 217.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 27c | 217$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 197.44$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 184.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…ebd1backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…de87backed Yes | 19c | 152.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 123 | 20.3%25 W · 98 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…23d2backed Yes | 27c | 125.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…bec8backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…5016backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff4…ca6abacked Yes | 17c | 110.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…4a74backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…943bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 133 | 31.6%42 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b51…1b5cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 12%49 W · 360 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 98.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…1255backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…e8f5backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0422…b0dbbacked Yes | 24c | 84.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…a236backed Yes | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b8…a794backed Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02b…7b98backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…aedebacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…223cbacked Yes | 25c | 53.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866e…2db0backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…a6b6backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 402 | 39.8%160 W · 242 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…bc51backed Yes | 31c | 44.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…b499backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 203 | 40.4%82 W · 121 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 27.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 22.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland?this page
- Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina?Yes won
- Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.