Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f2f350e3f232d897bc1db957f70be8b17984248c2c08e59ec63cdc82d73517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 956.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.39 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 767.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 612.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 2c | 579.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 4c | 548.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 517.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 76c | 495.23$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.43 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 433.54$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 75c | 399.07$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 6c | 398.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.71 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 25c | 359.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 67c | 346.31$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.77 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 344.34$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 341.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 284.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 36c | 255.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.79 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 5c | 227.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 215.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 17c | 179.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 176.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 145.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 143.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 10c | 142.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 32c | 140$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 24c | 135.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 132.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 130.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 57c | 116.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 14c | 110.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 106.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 49c | 100.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 20c | 91.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Yes | 38c | 90.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2710backed Yes | 33c | 88.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 31c | 87.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 86.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 37c | 86.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked No | 12c | 83.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…f027backed Yes | 28c | 71.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 72c | 69.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 52c | 69.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 29c | 66.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 70c | 60.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 22c | 53.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 34c | 49.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 28c | 47.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 48c | 45.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 35c | 40.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 77c | 38.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 55c | 27.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 63c | 26.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed No | 76c | 24.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…f19cbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed No | 77c | 17.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.