WNBA · resolved market
Valkyries vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050ad742175c2de5ed3ad1986c69d70da4e55a278ccf7a3d3caef69aa9031795
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Valkyries, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Valkyries | 27c | 2,143$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Valkyries | 29c | 2,098$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.69 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Valkyries | 32c | 2,050$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.99 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Mercury | 72c | 1,744$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.73 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Valkyries | 9c | 1,526$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Valkyries | 20c | 1,364$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…6d0cbacked Mercury | 68c | 1,339$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 70c | 1,140$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.72 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Valkyries | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Valkyries | 28c | 987.5$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Mercury | 69c | 907.55$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Valkyries | 30c | 799.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Valkyries | 27c | 745.54$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 72c | 729$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mercury | 68c | 707.4$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.33 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Mercury | 68c | 650$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Valkyries | 7c | 640$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mercury | 67c | 600$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Mercury | 70c | 523.14$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.94 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Valkyries | 23c | 499.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mercury | 73c | 444$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Mercury | 80c | 405.13$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Valkyries | 31c | 398.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Valkyries | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Valkyries | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Valkyries | 28c | 357.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Valkyries | 32c | 350$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Valkyries | 6c | 342.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Valkyries | 27c | 317.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Valkyries | 33c | 304.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Valkyries | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Valkyries | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…5e16backed Valkyries | 26c | 288.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 75c | 257.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Valkyries | 29c | 249$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Valkyries | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Valkyries | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Valkyries | 30c | 196.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Valkyries | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Valkyries | 32c | 156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Valkyries | 32c | 156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Valkyries | 32c | 145.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mercury | 67c | 135$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Mercury | 79c | 113.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Valkyries | 29c | 101.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Valkyries | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Valkyries | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Mercury | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Valkyries | 32c | 77.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4f…a90bbacked Valkyries | 21c | 66.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…d9efbacked Mercury | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 51cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercury | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Valkyries | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed Valkyries | 29c | 45.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3f…4ceabacked Mercury | 67c | 44.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0e…b61cbacked Valkyries | 27c | 44.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…2edabacked Mercury | 80c | 44.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Valkyries | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Mercury | 68c | 43.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…ed3ebacked Mercury | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mercury | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Valkyries | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…ab82backed Valkyries | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Valkyries | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked Mercury | 80c | 29.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…4298backed Mercury | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Valkyries | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ba…b393backed Mercury | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.