MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056fde77f489b88f4e313447759060c85ee3e98667de5f1c5fba556cfc78183c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 54c | 213,203$114,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,338.3 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 46c | 65,217$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 47,402$21,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,780.28 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 46c | 42,232$19,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,426.53 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 27,100$12,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,466 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 47c | 17,150$8,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,060.54 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 6,841$3,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.14 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 46c | 5,967$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.79 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Under | 54c | 3,776$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 54c | 2,576$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Over | 47c | 2,200$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 1,608$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.58 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,602$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 12c | 863.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 46c | 770$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.2 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 47c | 699.71$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.86 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 680.56$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.61 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 627.48$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.92 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Under | 54c | 456.23$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.96 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…e935backed Under | 54c | 307.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Under | 69c | 286.14$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Under | 59c | 122.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 47c | 103.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 44c | 99.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Over | 50c | 98.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Over | 13c | 91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 89.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over | 18c | 74.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Under | 54c | 63.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 44c | 62.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a14…cab1backed Over | 29c | 59.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 52.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…c12ebacked Over | 48c | 50.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…2afcbacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…58edbacked Over | 47c | 46.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…b6d0backed Under | 54c | 45.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…3970backed Under | 54c | 45.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 54c | 45.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf1…5776backed Over | 40c | 41.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…4cc1backed Over | 49c | 39.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 38.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe813…3d19backed Under | 54c | 38.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 61c | 31.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 58c | 30.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…48e5backed Under | 54c | 30.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…94b2backed Over | 47c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Over | 44c | 24.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 47c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…6831backed Under | 59c | 24.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3df…103abacked Over | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…e71fbacked Under | 68c | 18.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.