MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bcaf94ad473fa90464058d3faba17c630c9db8c5363dcb266ba36f0fc5531c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed No | 53c | 2,704$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Yes | 49c | 2,342$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,106$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.39 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 52c | 985.02$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.21 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 49c | 221.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 51c | 194.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 51c | 136.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Yes | 49c | 134.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Yes | 49c | 110.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 50c | 41.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 49c | 40.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Yes | 49c | 28.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…b74cbacked Yes | 49c | 24.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed No | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 52c | 19.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royalsthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.