TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Club Bolívarof São Paulo FC, Club Bolívar
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,860
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,860 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed São Paulo FC20c2,263$445 inLost-$445.032,28734.3%784 W · 1,503 L-30.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed São Paulo FC16c454.31$72 inLost-$71.741,29643%557 W · 739 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed São Paulo FC23c217.67$50 inLost-$5040442.1%170 W · 234 L-12.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed São Paulo FC19c189.31$37 inLost-$36.783,75538.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Club Bolívar77c171.57$132 inWon+$39.4619340.4%78 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Club Bolívar76c104.24$79 inWon+$2514943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked São Paulo FC32c79.45$25 inLost-$25.3731136.7%114 W · 197 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f65…ec56backed Club Bolívar79c62.01$49 inWon+$13.02366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Club Bolívar74c20$15 inWon+$5.1350643.9%222 W · 284 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Club Bolívar74c20$15 inWon+$5.235046.3%162 W · 188 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Club Bolívar74c20$15 inWon+$5.1348547.6%231 W · 254 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Club Bolívar77c18$14 inWon+$4.0941662%258 W · 158 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.