South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7155778e68aa6e6ffe909d61b5608d1267a7912e530b5240fd528b1df91f33b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 2c | 3,500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 27c | 2,969$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.81 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 74c | 2,933$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.23 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 4c | 1,970$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +112%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,316$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 78c | 1,221$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.62 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 2c | 988.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 3c | 875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 72c | 836.58$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…3cbdbacked Under | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Under | 13c | 761.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 22c | 689.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Under | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 3c | 533.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 26c | 374.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…75a6backed Over | 78c | 322.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 72c | 304.03$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 76c | 246.05$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Under | 24c | 206.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 21c | 176.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Over | 69c | 168.12$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Under | 11c | 124$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 105.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…20d5backed Over | 78c | 105.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…ab0cbacked Over | 71c | 82.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 26c | 59.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 26c | 53.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 28c | 47.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 67c | 20.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 77c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…c45ebacked Over | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.