South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0f18c4dbf116cf0985601b9f25d01357386e9dbfb607734186fe3a49ba48cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 39c | 3,056$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.65 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 1,671$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.42 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed No | 57c | 991.33$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.72 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 63c | 973.35$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.2 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 42c | 270.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.51 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 231.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…2dd6backed Yes | 47c | 217.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 46cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 42c | 166.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 52c | 161.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 43c | 154.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 43c | 144.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 62c | 143.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed No | 57c | 100.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed No | 53c | 94.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 43c | 77.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 52c | 74.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 48c | 72.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 53c | 65.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 53c | 60.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 61c | 54.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 76c | 53.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 45c | 49.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…5d36backed Yes | 49c | 38.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…7116backed No | 53c | 36.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 51c | 33.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 61c | 30.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…bdb5backed Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…e682backed Yes | 46c | 28.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…612bbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 44c | 24.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 24.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 64c | 22.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 61c | 21.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 73c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.