South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc3566aa599d049194feb2960c1606f7ff29bf70430d757052d1bf3f25c048a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- São Paulo FCof São Paulo FC, Club Bolívar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed São Paulo FC | 42c | 5,342$2,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.19 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed São Paulo FC | 45c | 4,196$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.56 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Club Bolívar | 58c | 3,964$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed São Paulo FC | 44c | 2,157$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.67 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Club Bolívar | 55c | 1,824$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.16 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Bolívar | 58c | 1,636$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.96 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Club Bolívar | 55c | 1,472$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.76 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed São Paulo FC | 34c | 1,127$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.85 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Club Bolívar | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed São Paulo FC | 44c | 676.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.88 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Club Bolívar | 55c | 454$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Club Bolívar | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Club Bolívar | 56c | 314.46$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Club Bolívar | 75c | 269.7$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.61 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Club Bolívar | 66c | 246.09$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Club Bolívar | 55c | 239$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Club Bolívar | 56c | 223$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked São Paulo FC | 33c | 221.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Club Bolívar | 57c | 219$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Club Bolívar | 70c | 218.45$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.22 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed São Paulo FC | 45c | 211.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Club Bolívar | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed São Paulo FC | 43c | 146.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Club Bolívar | 65c | 128.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 107.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…d4b0backed Club Bolívar | 48c | 101.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 98.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Club Bolívar | 63c | 75.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8a…cb94backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed Club Bolívar | 56c | 74.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Club Bolívar | 61c | 62.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed São Paulo FC | 21c | 62.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…814ebacked São Paulo FC | 20c | 61.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed São Paulo FC | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked São Paulo FC | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked São Paulo FC | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Club Bolívar | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Club Bolívar | 57c | 46.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Club Bolívar | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed São Paulo FC | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed São Paulo FC | 39c | 40.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Club Bolívar | 67c | 37.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Club Bolívar | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 31.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Club Bolívar | 58c | 31.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked São Paulo FC | 39c | 29.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Club Bolívar | 61c | 29.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…fff9backed Club Bolívar | 71c | 28.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Club Bolívar | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked São Paulo FC | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 157 | 68.2%107 W · 50 L | +21.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Club Bolívar | 60c | 18.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.