South American Leagues · resolved market

São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe92bf9bcf1ad98c8d2675219e16a5d203f0088c741d3f089fe5ed99601044681

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $119,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $138,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,920 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8806…2e83backed Over	65c	16,947$11,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,929.78	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	35c	15,183$5,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,249.82	2,514	39%980 W · 1,534 L	-32.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	32c	12,413$4,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,033.22	3,749	38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L	-33.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	33c	9,841$3,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,265.94	1,290	42.8%552 W · 738 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…76fabacked Under	51c	9,504$4,835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,834.85	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Over	70c	9,460$6,661 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,799.11	89	28.1%25 W · 64 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Over	69c	8,375$5,798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,576.9	101	28.7%29 W · 72 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd0…ebd0backed Over	68c	8,295$5,645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,649.99	81	39.5%32 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2220…1a0fbacked Over	79c	6,484$5,106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,377.4	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	31c	5,966$1,861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,860.55	1,537	45.2%695 W · 842 L	+21.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…5998backed Over	70c	4,552$3,196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,355.45	174	40.2%70 W · 104 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	51c	4,408$2,265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,143.51	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	31c	3,823$1,186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,186.29	1,362	44.9%611 W · 751 L	-22.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed Under	42c	3,184$1,327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,327.34	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acc…c5b9backed Over	59c	3,128$1,837 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,291.32	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over	45c	3,000$1,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,650	194	47.9%93 W · 101 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Over	73c	2,849$2,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.03	88	33%29 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	44c	2,421$1,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.2	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	29c	2,258$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$664.61	1,038	49.4%513 W · 525 L	+14.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ae…d35bbacked Under	47c	2,009$944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.43	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Over	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa9…09fabacked Over	67c	1,463$979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.82	106	35.8%38 W · 68 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+106.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over	69c	1,437$985 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.71	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Over	66c	1,396$918 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.66	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64e7…50d1backed Under	43c	1,395$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over	71c	1,074$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.27	457	46.8%214 W · 243 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	48c	1,065$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$552.95	752	40.8%307 W · 445 L	-17.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	32c	918$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.69	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2983…4eb2backed Under	49c	817.55$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed Under	17c	651.59$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.77	124	34.7%43 W · 81 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Under	32c	643.76$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.62	149	43%64 W · 85 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Under	33c	581.86$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.64	77	42.9%33 W · 44 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	55c	568.25$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.31	2,281	34.3%782 W · 1,499 L	-30.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Under	30c	506.22$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.66	219	38.8%85 W · 134 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	31c	472.33$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.61	898	46.1%414 W · 484 L	-11.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47d9…54b7backed Over	67c	469.79$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.58	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over	74c	415.37$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.08	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Under	29c	411.93$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.46	116	40.5%47 W · 69 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under	34c	378.46$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.05	164	49.4%81 W · 83 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	55c	287.27$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.27	311	36.7%114 W · 197 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Over	72c	266.56$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.67	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1a…f598backed Over	77c	265.68$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.52	65	24.6%16 W · 49 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Over	72c	256.63$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.52	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	67c	156$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.29	769	51.5%396 W · 373 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under	30c	154.39$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.97	290	47.6%138 W · 152 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	71c	150.24$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.44	517	50.7%262 W · 255 L	+28.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Under	31c	150$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	53c	134.75$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.33	668	37.1%248 W · 420 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb284…b1fbbacked Over	72c	116.41$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.46	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked Over	63c	90.91$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.64	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+392.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Over	53c	89.83$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.22	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under	26c	88.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	350	46.3%162 W · 188 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under	29c	87.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	694	53.5%371 W · 323 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed Over	53c	66.04$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.04	100	44%44 W · 56 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	57c	64$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.26	506	43.9%222 W · 284 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	60c	61.39$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.79	485	47.6%231 W · 254 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under	52c	57.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	66c	56.37$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.17	289	40.1%116 W · 173 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	53c	53.89$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	1,439	37.5%540 W · 899 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	675	48%324 W · 351 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	44c	45.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	951	55.8%531 W · 420 L	+31.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Over	47c	44.03$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.16	193	49.2%95 W · 98 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over	48c	41.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.59	264	65.9%174 W · 90 L	+13.6wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x733c…521bbacked Over	72c	40.44$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.42	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.9wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c36…4da4backed Over	67c	35.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under	51c	35.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.29	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x298f…b4e1backed Over	70c	35.5$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.65	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+44.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	44c	34.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	630	61.3%386 W · 244 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c2…190dbacked Under	58c	34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe30f…ab88backed Under	58c	34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under	45c	31.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	601	56.2%338 W · 263 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	412	62.1%256 W · 156 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Over	76c	27.22$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.45	191	55.5%106 W · 85 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Under	48c	26.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	150	57.3%86 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe629…d920backed Over	53c	26.42$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+108.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over	69c	25.9$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.03	1,253	56.2%704 W · 549 L	+73.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0b1…f219backed Over	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x004c…ab0cbacked Over	72c	20.22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.68	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc1…eebebacked Over	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over	71c	16.35$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	67cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 2.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 0.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 1.5Over won
São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: São Paulo FC O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

São Paulo FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event