Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05bce5cc276762636b3d0b3a1e791e5194a2c0bc7fc8e93002e3a191a6432e8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fnaticof Fnatic, Team Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Fnatic | 41c | 10,000$4,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,850.19 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Team Heretics | 59c | 8,792$5,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,187.31 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Team Heretics | 58c | 6,033$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.73 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Fnatic | 39c | 1,486$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.22 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Fnatic | 64c | 1,259$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.15 | 510 | 44.1%225 W · 285 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Heretics | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Fnatic | 41c | 939.02$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Fnatic | 42c | 930.2$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.32 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Fnatic | 41c | 858.54$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.54 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Team Heretics | 59c | 826.06$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.3 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Fnatic | 41c | 765.85$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.85 | 376 | 40.2%151 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Fnatic | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.76 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Team Heretics | 59c | 519.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.79 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…c9ffbacked Fnatic | 42c | 420$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 633 | 52%329 W · 304 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Team Heretics | 41c | 412.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.14 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Fnatic | 42c | 400$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed Fnatic | 60c | 384.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Heretics | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Fnatic | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 394 | 50.3%198 W · 196 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Fnatic | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…5fafbacked Fnatic | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 567 | 44.8%254 W · 313 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Team Heretics | 59c | 237.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 861 | 44.1%380 W · 481 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Fnatic | 43c | 222.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Fnatic | 41c | 180$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Team Heretics | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 481 | 43.2%208 W · 273 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Fnatic | 39c | 133$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Fnatic | 43c | 127.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 237 | 48.5%115 W · 122 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Fnatic | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Team Heretics | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 252 | 40.1%101 W · 151 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Fnatic | 44c | 86.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…51d2backed Team Heretics | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Team Heretics | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fnatic | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Team Heretics | 49c | 61.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Fnatic | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 626 | 49.8%312 W · 314 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Fnatic | 46c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 210 | 54.8%115 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Team Heretics | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Fnatic | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Team Heretics | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Team Heretics | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…760dbacked Team Heretics | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Team Heretics | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…e9d8backed Fnatic | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 200 | 57%114 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonFnatic won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics - Game 1 WinnerFnatic won
- LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics - Game 2 WinnerFnatic won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.