Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0630700ae9e85af7fda0e580fc364758cf9e30f3f37e528cb702ee5f775d9aed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8778…743abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 962.82$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 6c | 679.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 21c | 541.37$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 277.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 229.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 214.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 28c | 206.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 9c | 153.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 27c | 144.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8851…1d7abacked Yes | 14c | 126.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 116.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 107.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 101.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 18c | 97.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 28c | 91.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 78c | 89.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…1c19backed No | 48c | 79.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 15c | 77.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 52c | 76.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 75.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 73.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 65c | 71.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 64.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 60.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 29c | 57.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 65c | 48.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 79c | 35.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 34.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 73c | 30.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 26.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 25.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 62c | 23.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 72c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.