MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06365672cc8a1733d4cb0c49d13d1b703a27af3309f84af5f8d4aaa74937fce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 3,699$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.03 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 1,319$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.92 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 1,117$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.83 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 3c | 1,050$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.99 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 999.98$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 822.6$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.78 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 810.2$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 808.29$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 611.6$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.23 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 575.72$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.98 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 4c | 527.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 520.18$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.18 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 466.22$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 439.98$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cleveland Guardians | 10c | 439.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 408.68$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.3 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 370.54$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.03 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 304.27$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Cleveland Guardians | 8c | 303.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Cleveland Guardians | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 257.17$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 256.79$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 249.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 223.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 210.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 192$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 148.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 146.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 144$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…e36bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 141.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 125.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 118.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 118.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 91.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 89.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 79.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 69.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 64.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 64.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 60.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 59.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 57.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 47.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 46.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 43.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 32.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 26.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 26.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 24.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.