MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ac31c2ca1339e94aad564c81dbd3a75787b7b941ea5aec44b36e45bf12840e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 6,980$4,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 6,690$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,637$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 30c | 1,370$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.76 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 45c | 1,227$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.16 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Over | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 956.11$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 37c | 915.05$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 742.44$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 592.19$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.64 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Over | 3c | 531.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 55c | 486.5$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.58 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 42c | 482.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.91 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 38c | 481.39$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.73 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 24c | 294.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 71c | 254.72$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 47c | 254.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 33c | 245.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 13c | 203$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 6c | 202.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 30c | 132.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Over | 22c | 121.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 97.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 47c | 87.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 69c | 76.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Under | 70c | 72.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 60.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 79c | 57.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 55c | 51.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 46.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 40.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 40c | 40.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 28c | 36.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 44c | 29.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 37c | 28.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Under | 73c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 68c | 17.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 72c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.