WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06565d57891fb1e7d33c922e6c3f353e0897e272e4579c425bf28a2e29cbd2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 45c | 4,619$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.79 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed PortlandFire | 54c | 1,906$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 60c | 1,197$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.11 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed PortlandFire | 51c | 1,186$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.04 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed PortlandFire | 51c | 1,175$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.99 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed PortlandFire | 52c | 1,162$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.99 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 1,149$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.44 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 869.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.55 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 760.85$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.86 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked PortlandFire | 59c | 291.76$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 271.09$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 251.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Indiana Fever | 42c | 101.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 58.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 50.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed PortlandFire | 60c | 41.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Indiana Fever | 40c | 41.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Indiana Fever | 45c | 38.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed PortlandFire | 61c | 34.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed PortlandFire | 59c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed PortlandFire | 60c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-12.5)this page
- Portland Fire vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-13.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.