WNBA · resolved market
Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702d961d38409ea40ff8fcdd31b0f6fa36c4d970d8cbc32c3abf8044f31b60e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Portland Fire, Indiana Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Portland Fire | 18c | 21,967$3,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,897.31 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9367…f6bebacked Portland Fire | 20c | 20,599$4,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,077.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Indiana Fever | 80c | 18,106$14,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.2 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Indiana Fever | 79c | 15,451$12,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.8 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Portland Fire | 4c | 4,055$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Portland Fire | 19c | 3,594$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.94 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…3e8fbacked Portland Fire | 21c | 2,504$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Portland Fire | 17c | 1,822$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.6 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…0d8cbacked Portland Fire | 17c | 1,731$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8927…f5c6backed Portland Fire | 13c | 1,540$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 130 | 24.6%32 W · 98 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Portland Fire | 13c | 1,432$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Portland Fire | 16c | 939.25$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…cd91backed Portland Fire | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Portland Fire | 10c | 899.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…bb68backed Portland Fire | 11c | 700.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Portland Fire | 18c | 681$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Portland Fire | 14c | 653.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Portland Fire | 20c | 627$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…d002backed Portland Fire | 16c | 603.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Portland Fire | 15c | 463.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Portland Fire | 17c | 417.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Portland Fire | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Portland Fire | 18c | 375.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Portland Fire | 21c | 358.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Indiana Fever | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…b095backed Portland Fire | 21c | 346.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Portland Fire | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Portland Fire | 13c | 185.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…e44ebacked Indiana Fever | 80c | 178.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Portland Fire | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…e5c0backed Portland Fire | 8c | 174.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…eeb8backed Portland Fire | 8c | 165.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…b335backed Portland Fire | 7c | 159.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Portland Fire | 11c | 157.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked Portland Fire | 18c | 150.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Portland Fire | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Portland Fire | 17c | 149.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Portland Fire | 12c | 133.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08a1…10dcbacked Portland Fire | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Portland Fire | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Portland Fire | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed Portland Fire | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…3a38backed Portland Fire | 12c | 104.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Portland Fire | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Portland Fire | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…3639backed Portland Fire | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Portland Fire | 18c | 97.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Indiana Fever | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Indiana Fever | 80c | 75.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Portland Fire | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Portland Fire | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…7ee6backed Indiana Fever | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Portland Fire | 17c | 61.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…a659backed Indiana Fever | 80c | 48.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Indiana Fever | 80c | 47.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Indiana Fever | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Indiana Fever | 79c | 34.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Indiana Fever | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102c…664bbacked Indiana Fever | 75c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Indiana Fever | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Fire vs. Indiana Feverthis page
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-12.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-13.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.