WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26ceb327d76f1cc61132f593ce88b6563251e83ffeb5380c9be64572b3c49a3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 2,271$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.67 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Indiana Fever | 37c | 1,705$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.23 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 53c | 1,313$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.68 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…7d10backed PortlandFire | 65c | 1,085$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PortlandFire | 56c | 839.93$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.56 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 799.99$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 780.82$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.84 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed PortlandFire | 56c | 780.06$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9333…4100backed PortlandFire | 53c | 565.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked PortlandFire | 57c | 480.79$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked PortlandFire | 54c | 305.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.81 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed PortlandFire | 68c | 295.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed PortlandFire | 52c | 250.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…5aaebacked Indiana Fever | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed PortlandFire | 53c | 192$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed PortlandFire | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked PortlandFire | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed PortlandFire | 55c | 163.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed PortlandFire | 55c | 163.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed PortlandFire | 55c | 163.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed PortlandFire | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked PortlandFire | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked PortlandFire | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 89.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 80.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed PortlandFire | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked PortlandFire | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8078…fa70backed PortlandFire | 53c | 60.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 49.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…6047backed PortlandFire | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 33.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed PortlandFire | 61c | 20.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-13.5)this page
- Portland Fire vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5Under won
- PortlandFire vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-12.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.