NFL · resolved market
Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06668c9a7d72117fb5985f94f0f80f1f311e00287c53aff1d50666f449da34eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 3c | 7,358$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.29 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 0c | 3,364$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 7c | 2,018$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…3d42backed Yes | 29c | 1,748$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 43c | 1,416$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.87 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 28c | 906.17$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 45c | 792.24$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.32 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…bdf7backed No | 79c | 623.55$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.86 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…399fbacked No | 72c | 439.28$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Yes | 54c | 279.86$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed Yes | 22c | 260$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +256.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 252.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 54c | 233$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…526fbacked Yes | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked No | 12c | 197.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Yes | 52c | 188.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 58c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 62c | 135$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 16c | 131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked No | 34c | 129.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Yes | 46c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 16c | 90.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…3177backed Yes | 69c | 72.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…3282backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 49c | 66.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +280.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed No | 41c | 46.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…f12ebacked Yes | 36c | 38.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…d15ebacked No | 40c | 37.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes | 76c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers?this page
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to another team?No won
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Browns?No won
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Patriots?No won
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Steelers?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.