NFL · resolved market
Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Steelers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd68d0dbe1eef5ec82858de99998f7c9b7d469c2099c983231f39b2e09095c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74b1…ec47backed Yes | 1c | 8,928$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 6,600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 3,380$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.25 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 63c | 2,140$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1a…1046backed Yes | 53c | 1,413$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed No | 44c | 1,099$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.04 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes | 44c | 973.48$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.19 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 5c | 930.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Yes | 19c | 922.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.32 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 43c | 830$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…bdf7backed Yes | 50c | 788.34$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.61 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…399fbacked Yes | 26c | 768.62$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 59c | 757.46$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.91 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 43c | 667.42$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.43 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…6569backed Yes | 20c | 499.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked No | 50c | 480.43$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.18 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed No | 80c | 420.96$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed No | 38c | 380.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +256.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…304cbacked Yes | 21c | 350$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 44c | 346.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 61c | 333$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.13 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed No | 44c | 286.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0e…1dccbacked Yes | 54c | 230.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…68e6backed Yes | 46c | 220.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 39c | 213$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0530…d8febacked Yes | 44c | 197$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…37b3backed No | 28c | 155.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 16c | 154.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…c130backed No | 62c | 149.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Yes | 10c | 127.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 39c | 124.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +280.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 69c | 119.26$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Yes | 22c | 113.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 25c | 100.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…526fbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…3d42backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…e52fbacked Yes | 74c | 89.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…9a4bbacked Yes | 43c | 76.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed No | 50c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…d15ebacked No | 74c | 67.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…cfdcbacked No | 43c | 65.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…37d7backed Yes | 25c | 60.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…dd01backed No | 49c | 41.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 72c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed No | 53c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…a88dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Steelers?this page
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to another team?No won
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Browns?No won
- Will Brandon Aiyuk be traded to the Patriots?No won
- Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.