NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06b5971878f57d43229438804733ffcc02b6faed861bc1cfe21d216f6e61bf14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 13,144$6,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,238.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 52c | 7,442$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,602.31 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 6,969$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.41 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 52c | 6,798$3,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.96 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 4,638$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.74 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 4,438$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.42 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…4710backed Under | 53c | 4,359$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 2,110$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.05 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 52c | 2,081$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.77 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 49c | 1,777$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.73 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 1,619$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.94 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 1,505$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.28 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 700$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 51c | 535$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…4e38backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 453.48$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 54c | 308.3$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 51c | 254.9$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 238.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 218.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Over | 51c | 172.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 167.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 44c | 146.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 115.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 112.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 74.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 69.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…b85fbacked Over | 47c | 58.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 52c | 49.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…9e1cbacked Over | 47c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 47c | 24.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 53c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…b84abacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Pacers won
- Heat vs. PacersPacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds Over 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.