NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7996ceebae7d4a3df55853c798c53354df82784ec6f318bd734cd09588bc57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 9,521$4,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,449.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Under | 53c | 7,750$4,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.5 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…9536backed Under | 70c | 1,999$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.82 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 940.08$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 57c | 492.31$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 328.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 201.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Under | 53c | 169.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 50c | 154$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 57c | 125.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec3…9aa3backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 14c | 89.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Under | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 17c | 80.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 63.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 54c | 44.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 57c | 40.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 57c | 40.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…d73fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 73c | 30.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Pacers won
- Heat vs. PacersPacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds Over 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.