NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf63ce01506a6116192b5ba594c223b2ad20acc4c427dac17875b197c51666ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Heat, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Pacers | 50c | 26,073$13,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,024.68 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 50c | 11,907$5,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,953.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Heat | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Heat | 50c | 6,438$3,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.88 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Pacers | 49c | 6,342$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234.57 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Heat | 51c | 5,947$3,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 49c | 4,218$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Heat | 51c | 2,049$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.75 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Heat | 51c | 2,009$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.7 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 49c | 693.32$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.69 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…9802backed Heat | 51c | 691.61$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Heat | 51c | 478.43$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…bc89backed Heat | 51c | 311.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Heat | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Pacers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Heat | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Heat | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 45c | 134.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 51c | 118.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Heat | 23c | 117.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Pacers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Heat | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Heat | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Heat | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Heat | 51c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Heat | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Heat | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Pacers | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 50c | 34.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Pacers | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Heat | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Heat | 50c | 27.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Heat | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Pacers won
- Heat vs. PacersPacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds Over 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.