Tennis · resolved market
Nordea Open: Darderi vs. De Jong
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06bea12aa1d85c0223e59df635bc0fc349d4d903fdcc411ebc52ab39384895cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darderiof Darderi, De Jong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked De Jong | 52c | 18,782$9,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,715.53 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Darderi | 48c | 16,574$7,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,596.62 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked De Jong | 18c | 7,149$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.55 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed De Jong | 15c | 2,858$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.41 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Darderi | 60c | 1,661$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.83 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Darderi | 78c | 1,642$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.95 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Darderi | 66c | 1,593$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.15 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed De Jong | 32c | 1,010$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.91 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed De Jong | 8c | 524.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed De Jong | 26c | 515$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…c05fbacked De Jong | 17c | 513.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Darderi | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…654fbacked De Jong | 36c | 455.52$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Darderi | 57c | 402$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.86 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed De Jong | 33c | 295.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Darderi | 61c | 261.41$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed De Jong | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked De Jong | 41c | 244.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Darderi | 63c | 205.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…8121backed De Jong | 50c | 205.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Darderi | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed De Jong | 51c | 137.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Darderi | 57c | 119.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked De Jong | 31c | 115.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed De Jong | 21c | 105.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Darderi | 62c | 101.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked De Jong | 38c | 100.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…cab7backed Darderi | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked De Jong | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed De Jong | 66c | 93.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ee…6198backed Darderi | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Darderi | 63c | 81.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Darderi | 63c | 79.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed De Jong | 37c | 76.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Darderi | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Darderi | 60c | 40.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Darderi | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Darderi | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Darderi | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…88d5backed De Jong | 51c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…e3e6backed De Jong | 38c | 26.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…db19backed Darderi | 49c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8715backed Darderi | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Darderi | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.