Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06d81eb82971387cd08447670f8a850d504de07e1cf8e4ec6c2916f9c37d16e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Bayern Münchenof Paris Saint-Germain FC, FC Bayern München
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 6,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 8c | 4,007$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 5c | 3,341$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 3,216$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 3c | 2,859$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 3c | 1,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 3c | 1,461$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 1,312$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 5c | 1,218$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…521bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 1,175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…6378backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…e483backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 950$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4377…1764backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 11c | 900.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…945dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 900$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…fb00backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…debbbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 719.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…6960backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 3c | 714.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 626.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 608.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…b4ebbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 599.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 5c | 519.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 183 | 34.4%63 W · 120 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3416…0c7cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 511.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…386fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)this page
- FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.