TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marlinsof Nationals, Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,720 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5f2…0234backed Nationals42c19,261$8,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,089.7126949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Nationals42c17,426$7,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,294.6634245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Marlins58c17,234$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,238.4815650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nationals49c15,527$7,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,568.41,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Marlins58c10,003$5,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.5535854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals47c9,030$4,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,247.769249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Nationals41c8,215$3,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.3238043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Marlins57c7,401$4,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.5956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins61c5,907$3,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.561,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins58c5,018$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.652,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Marlins59c4,994$2,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.6360451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Marlins58c4,001$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.7121847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6401,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Marlins59c3,662$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.5828258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins44c3,356$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,873.489,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Marlins58c3,215$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.2863152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins57c2,216$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.292,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Marlins59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8208562.4%53 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Marlins57c1,551$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.761,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nationals42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63016349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Marlins58c1,492$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.5514148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nationals43c1,310$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.4239041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Nationals35c1,243$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.8315033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Nationals8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8027733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Nationals8c986.03$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins58c888.98$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.41,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Marlins59c677$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.571,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Marlins49c645.29$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.1178445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Nationals43c629.47$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.679645.8%44 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Marlins3c615.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.365852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals28c542.05$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.444,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Marlins72c505.3$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8879740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Marlins58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21095850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Marlins57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21513247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals41c499.98$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Nationals42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Nationals42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals43c450.84$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.861,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Marlins73c404.46$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.6976456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Marlins69c400$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12547745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Marlins60c351.93$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9651334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Nationals26c349.79$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2913138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Marlins59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9857744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Marlins59c328.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8973149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nationals53c318.88$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Marlins76c311$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.084531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Nationals43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12918649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Marlins58c290$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.823455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee1d…7a12backed Marlins58c261.17$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.173141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Marlins59c246.36$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0112152.1%63 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals41c243.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0440548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Marlins59c240.68$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6899951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e0…4983backed Nationals43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015942.8%68 W · 91 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Marlins37c222.8$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3610041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nationals56c207$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.928,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16a1…24f8backed Nationals50c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.652536%9 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Nationals41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8233140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Nationals41c198.71$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1919742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c8…9be5backed Marlins59c181.36$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.362055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e8…e4e6backed Marlins59c174.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.582839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4eff…8490backed Marlins59c174.29$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.975060%30 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Marlins59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.497443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Marlins59c169$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2924346.1%112 W · 131 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals42c167$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.141,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4591…d19ebacked Nationals42c166.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014146.1%65 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Nationals22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Nationals42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6318446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals42c142.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0d…df7abacked Nationals54c139.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.25616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72b7…e360backed Nationals47c133$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.186152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed Nationals78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007365.8%48 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Marlins59c127.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1240144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals42c125$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.52,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Nationals41c121$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6131347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x702a…abb6backed Nationals42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Nationals22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2245732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Nationals10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Nationals41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4135245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Marlins59c94.49$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.741,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4f…86b3backed Marlins59c84.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.671145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba49…a4a1backed Nationals30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals74c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Nationals41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7260052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2659…d77ebacked Nationals43c57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.443627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Marlins58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2118750.3%94 W · 93 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd287…7485backed Nationals41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.554352.3%284 W · 259 L+27.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a66…5b12backed Nationals41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014450.7%73 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Nationals41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4534257.6%197 W · 145 L+25.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1c9…cf27backed Marlins58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf3…2b57backed Nationals53c41.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226341.3%26 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Marlins58c41.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3874356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf1f…8f72backed Nationals41c39.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.398740.2%35 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6360…c981backed Nationals41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3525255.6%140 W · 112 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c3…766cbacked Nationals63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4c…d03dbacked Nationals42c30.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e63…7e29backed Marlins59c30.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5153639.9%214 W · 322 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.