Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06f4113ffeca3b9a6a317835bcf80238c1edc86346add8f89cce3e0498bc05c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 18c | 567.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 401.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.91 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 35c | 276.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 214$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 212.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 201.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 36c | 199.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 60c | 177.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 158.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 77c | 153.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 145$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 136.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 131$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 73c | 119.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 36c | 114.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 104.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 68c | 96.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 65c | 88.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 60c | 86.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 86.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 71.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 69.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed No | 63c | 63.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 52.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 51.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 50c | 49.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 36c | 46.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 45.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 44.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 48c | 43.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 41.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 35c | 40.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 39.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 62c | 37.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 35c | 35.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 32.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 31.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 31.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 30.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 33c | 30.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 29.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 27.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 42c | 25.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 57c | 25.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 24.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Yes | 60c | 21.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 20.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 60c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 17.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 16.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.