Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbd2abeae9b18cff480a0d70c49de863142b30b983072488bd92ae9418274e74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 989.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 26c | 548.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.89 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 325.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 303.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 298.86$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 256.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 39c | 240.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 237.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 189$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 184.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 76c | 119.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 119$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 117.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 99.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 20c | 93.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 77c | 83.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 83.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 22c | 83.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 82.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 81.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 79.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 59.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 59.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 53.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 53.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 53.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 73c | 44.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 42.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 36c | 41.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 47c | 40.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 38c | 40.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 40.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 36.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 43c | 36.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 71c | 35.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 31.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 29.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…b050backed No | 73c | 28.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 27.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 70c | 24.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 23.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…8456backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 18.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed Yes | 75c | 18.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…0693backed Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.