TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,154 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c1,005$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.974,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes58c953.89$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.2354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No23c857.68$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.221,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No64c676.01$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.11,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c601.16$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.9317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes45c600.39$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.225,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No28c466.2$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c439.69$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.794,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No77c439.3$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.261,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes71c402.86$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes62c376.96$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3631442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed No65c317.19$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.323743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c311.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.818,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No7c279.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5613453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No75c265.8$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes29c263.58$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.231,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c252.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No71c249.93$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.452,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ae…ce7abacked Yes19c241.27$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+425%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c233.8$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No80c198.19$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3919753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No8c180.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.191,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c179.56$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.881,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes22c164.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.241,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes28c155$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4614637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes26c153.95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.241,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes63c153.57$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No20c145.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b6…9ecfbacked No8c140.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes34c135.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes24c128.46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.431,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes22c122.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2766926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes21c122.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.041,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c118.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.667,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xde57…76a4backed Yes57c117.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.632254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+93.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c110.01$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes31c100.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.032,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4808…5309backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+251.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes38c98.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.652533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes79c97.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.944757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xecaa…4fd0backed No77c94$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.385050%25 W · 25 L-10.5wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes23c92.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed No68c92.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.685451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06d7…af53backed Yes21c90.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.712128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes21c88.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.922,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No42c88.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.372,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed No66c84.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4318845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes21c80$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.221440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed Yes54c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No64c74.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.618164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No23c73.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.932,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c71.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.432,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No79c69.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5562770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa1…e423backed Yes43c69.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.441717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No73c68.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6522450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No70c66.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4242976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No80c60.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3429770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes66c56.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb989…9f16backed No77c53.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.19825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes23c51.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0333139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No78c51.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3070133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed Yes41c49.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.967518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c47.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.622,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes39c46.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No22c44.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No69c43.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.392,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes29c41.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4837533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1d…3d73backed Yes30c38.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.76450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes69c37.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7318530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes30c35.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2328648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No70c35.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8212962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f7…7bb4backed No79c34.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.584025%10 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…ec0bbacked No41c33.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No48c30.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.671,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.464,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x892c…2605backed No64c29.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.143243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No71c29.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No71c29.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6533373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No65c28.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7511652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes42c28.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5218033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed No78c27.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.346958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7277…f237backed No71c25.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.22540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick74cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No79c25.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9622265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No73c24.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4b7…91f8backed No80c23.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.677777.9%60 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes59c23.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.421,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No76c22.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.771,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c21.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…19d5backed No63c21.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No78c20.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.657173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No79c19.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No79c17.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9722675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.