Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7b87c04010f2ac05690619c477e3e2536c59ed0ba914b22758da758ac18727d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 18c | 1,131$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 467.39$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 25c | 369.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 22c | 348.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 299.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 248.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 247.55$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 8c | 213.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 184.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 18c | 183.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 178.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 26c | 178.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 160.95$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 27c | 138.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 9c | 132.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 126.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 113.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 79c | 112.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 15c | 104.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed Yes | 28c | 99.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…edefbacked Yes | 24c | 98.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 98.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 26c | 96.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 95.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 91.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 73c | 91.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 20c | 86.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…bd6bbacked Yes | 17c | 81.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…bbafbacked Yes | 13c | 76.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 74.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 23c | 72.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 73c | 66.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 62.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 24c | 61.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 73c | 60.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 25c | 58.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 20c | 55.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 18c | 55.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 25c | 47.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 47.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 45.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed No | 80c | 32.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 79c | 27.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 77c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 79c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 74c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 77c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 73c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.