Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b487cc7013fe30254a8e52a542e1641202ffd1115fd0ffd524eef28cb159302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aba…6262backed Yes | 0c | 9,914$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 27c | 2,535$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.57 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a773backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,202$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.5 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 814.29$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 33c | 692.09$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 546.72$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.61 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 46c | 490.84$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.6 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 431.13$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 412.52$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 397.09$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 66c | 292.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 267.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 43c | 206.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 204.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 45c | 199.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 52c | 196.66$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 55c | 185.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 181.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed No | 72c | 181.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 180.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 179.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 53c | 178.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 46c | 172.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 55c | 159.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 154.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 146.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 48c | 133.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 16c | 129.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 126.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 125.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 44c | 121.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 56c | 114.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 25c | 112.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 98.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 56c | 97.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 43c | 95.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 64c | 95.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 69c | 90.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 88.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 88.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 42c | 82.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 54c | 73.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 58c | 68.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 44c | 65.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 64.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 64.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 57.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 76c | 54.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 53.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 54c | 52.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 70c | 51.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…3d73backed No | 40c | 49.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 54c | 47.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 43c | 47.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 54c | 46.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 49c | 44.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…bd75backed Yes | 33c | 42.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 45c | 42.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 72c | 40.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 49c | 39.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…62f0backed Yes | 49c | 39.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 48c | 39.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 48c | 39.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 35.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 35.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 35.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 30c | 34.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 33.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 43c | 33.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 31.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 49c | 31.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 54c | 31.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 61c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 48c | 30.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 42c | 30.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 54c | 29.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 49c | 28.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 62c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 53c | 27.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567c…70a5backed No | 46c | 26.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 52c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 46c | 26.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 75c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 46c | 25.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.