TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,871 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1aba…6262backed Yes0c9,914$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes27c2,535$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.5754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x378a…a773backed Yes1c1,645$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes65c1,202$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.537056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes56c814.29$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.234,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No33c692.09$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.254,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes49c546.72$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes46c490.84$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes40c431.13$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.395,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No46c412.52$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.762,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c397.09$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes66c292.34$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8125549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes58c267.64$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.981,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes43c206.51$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.396240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c204.04$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.429,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes45c199.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1631442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No52c196.66$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No55c185.3$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7945162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No56c181.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5216548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed No72c181.05$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.72147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes43c180.47$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.81,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes43c179.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes53c178.72$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.338643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes46c172.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.961,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed No55c159.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No52c154.42$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.713,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No55c146.81$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.491,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes48c133.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5433450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes16c129.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1118845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No60c126.45$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7734250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No54c125.25$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.562,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No44c121.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.663323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes56c114.54$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7623743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes25c112.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.745635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes42c98.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes56c97.01$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3148743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No43c95.79$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.391,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes64c95.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8815545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed No69c90.56$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6314744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c88.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c88.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.548,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes42c82.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5211729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No54c73.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.921,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No58c68.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6919059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes44c65.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.452533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c64.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.114,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes45c64.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No55c57.93$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.971,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No76c54.37$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No46c53.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.162,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No54c52.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.969959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes70c51.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3415435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1d…3d73backed No40c49.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes54c47.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7618740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes43c47.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3934934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No54c46.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes49c44.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5711331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.952,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745d…bd75backed Yes33c42.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed No45c42.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5415534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes47c42.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde57…76a4backed Yes72c40.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.142254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+93.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2027851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No49c39.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.331,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a6…62f0backed Yes49c39.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No48c39.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5419772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa1f…af40backed Yes48c39.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.974837.5%18 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c35.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.519,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No43c35.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.222,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No51c35.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No30c34.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2619547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes40c33.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5440242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes43c33.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.223463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes47c31.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes49c31.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.541,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes54c31.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1732352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No61c30.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8219648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No48c30.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes42c30.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.426344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed No46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.27463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.454966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked No54c29.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.648417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No49c28.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7711925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed No62c28.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9718033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes70c27.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.426142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed No53c27.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.76958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x567c…70a5backed No46c26.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52536%9 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes52c26.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.814429.5%13 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No46c26.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2612057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed No75c26.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6116030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No56c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.332,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No76c25.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1722265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes46c25.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.681330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.