NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07190682434b591bcc7f3555c1abe6b8c9b8737289469827c64698f05d729ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 54c | 18,863$10,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,168.68 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 10,110$4,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,459.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 5,873$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,112.88 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 5,090$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 4,371$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.83 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 2,123$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.66 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…afd1backed Under | 54c | 1,593$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Over | 46c | 1,111$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 429.57$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.97 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Under | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 335.71$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d7…c151backed Under | 14c | 142.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 47c | 97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Over | 48c | 40.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- Pistons vs. HeatPistons won
- Pistons vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.