NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x127eaaac163fffa25b27be6ad40175626aefaf877e208ca51c0e2630858baf85

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pistonsof Heat, Pistons
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,451 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb7f5…c669backed Heat	55c	6,000$3,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,300	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons	45c	2,486$1,117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,369.25	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons	45c	1,835$824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,011.8	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pistons	45c	1,507$678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$829	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Pistons	47c	846$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.38	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons	44c	834.07$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.06	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat	55c	563.54$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.54	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat	57c	488$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.86	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Heat	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	56c	156$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.36	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa689…c42ebacked Pistons	44c	129.55$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.55	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc89…c577backed Pistons	44c	115.91$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.91	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Heat	56c	111.55$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Heat	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	701	53.5%375 W · 326 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Pistons	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Pistons	45c	99$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.45	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Heat	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Heat	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Pistons	44c	39.29$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	177	44.1%78 W · 99 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Heat	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	51%50 W · 48 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Heat	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pistons	44c	31.2$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.47	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons	47c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe13e…c564backed Heat	54c	26.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.8wins	-0.28per pick	48cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7604…78b5backed Heat	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event