NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12f3348e9d49be5257d3eb70b52999b9b3d3751da9ae4df8141e5750f43ce2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Heat, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 50c | 9,342$4,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,670.98 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pistons | 52c | 9,258$4,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,405.21 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Heat | 50c | 7,006$3,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.98 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 47c | 5,143$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Heat | 47c | 2,973$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.08 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 48c | 1,934$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Heat | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Pistons | 52c | 919.23$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.23 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Heat | 50c | 536$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Heat | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Heat | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…6879backed Pistons | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)this page
- Pistons vs. HeatPistons won
- Pistons vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.