NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3746d7bd1786d45708d22539d0266ed46ab2ab3cd6a54d4b6c2f606eafc009d

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pistonsof Heat, Pistons
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $65,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $68,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,705 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1117…3532backed Heat	53c	29,999$15,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,899.58	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons	51c	13,581$6,938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,642.53	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Heat	51c	5,999$3,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,069.59	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pistons	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,550	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Pistons	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Heat	52c	4,006$2,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,082.91	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons	47c	3,918$1,841 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,077.03	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Pistons	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,590	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons	48c	2,364$1,134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,230.06	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0801…fd93backed Heat	52c	2,199$1,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,143.48	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd49…4b3bbacked Pistons	48c	2,064$991 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,073.28	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5664…4843backed Pistons	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040.82	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2e…2ad2backed Pistons	49c	2,000$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb62…abbdbacked Heat	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons	47c	1,990$935 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,054.7	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pistons	47c	1,824$857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$966.77	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pistons	47c	1,300$611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0d…e220backed Heat	52c	1,200$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Pistons	48c	1,046$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.02	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat	52c	873$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.96	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Pistons	47c	589.36$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.36	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat	17c	587$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Pistons	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	-7.6wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Pistons	48c	466.31$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.48	315	38.1%120 W · 195 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pistons	47c	397.79$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.57	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb79…e305backed Heat	52c	381.13$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Heat	52c	361.54$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	315	51.7%163 W · 152 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat	46c	346.65$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.87	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Pistons	54c	300$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Pistons	50c	298$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pistons	48c	279.96$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.58	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed Heat	52c	279.96$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.58	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons	47c	279.34$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.56	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Pistons	50c	260$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Heat	52c	220.4$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.61	271	61.3%166 W · 105 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Pistons	48c	216.54$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.6	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Pistons	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Pistons	50c	212$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.3	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Pistons	52c	211.54$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.54	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Pistons	50c	208.99$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.54	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Pistons	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e2d…74ccbacked Pistons	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Heat	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea10…6ccdbacked Heat	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	50	34%17 W · 33 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Heat	52c	167.87$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.29	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Pistons	48c	160$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f31…2c4ebacked Pistons	50c	160$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9827…e5ffbacked Pistons	48c	115$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.8	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Pistons	56c	109.02$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.58	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…fcf3backed Pistons	51c	108.16$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.16	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	50c	107$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Pistons	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Heat	52c	105.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Pistons	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Pistons	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Pistons	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc5…9cf9backed Heat	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Heat	51c	94.19$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.04	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fb…4ebebacked Heat	52c	78.07$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7214…7c59backed Pistons	47c	75$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	57cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7897…0842backed Pistons	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x046e…f91bbacked Heat	52c	57.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.13	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Heat	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat	51c	53.78$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8919…feb1backed Heat	52c	52.92$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Pistons	48c	52$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.04	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Heat	52c	50.41$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.01	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22dd…cc0fbacked Pistons	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Pistons	54c	43.78$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.21	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5748…7b81backed Pistons	50c	42$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	147	51%75 W · 72 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat	50c	40.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Pistons	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	51c	38.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e07…3702backed Pistons	48c	31.52$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.41	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Pistons	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x075a…8d34backed Pistons	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	128	58.6%75 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Heat	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa9…d3bebacked Pistons	48c	20.99$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	41cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Heat	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Pistons	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed Pistons	64c	16.29$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.83	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event