NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67972a7e9993fb5c1f20bc3401520f3ef7b63af0e440a4a49d9737da3268368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Heat, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3103…d804backed Heat | 50c | 2,005$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Heat | 43c | 1,760$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.8 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Pistons | 49c | 978$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.43 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 57c | 771.11$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pistons | 50c | 628$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Pistons | 59c | 627.12$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.12 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pistons | 50c | 272$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pistons | 56c | 118.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Pistons | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 44c | 90.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Pistons | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Pistons | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…1893backed Pistons | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Pistons | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Pistons | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Pistons | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…f95ebacked Pistons | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)this page
- Pistons vs. HeatPistons won
- Pistons vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.