NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefce08ddb33c752f4ab6fc62ea83f37a09fb300aafd132905f036a4a0307312a

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,222 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe405…bf91backed Under	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	4,955$2,425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,530.42	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over	48c	4,900$2,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,554.72	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Under	51c	4,488$2,289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,288.88	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	2,327$1,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,173.83	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c35…5850backed Under	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-24%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71ea…a8eebacked Over	49c	2,100$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Over	49c	1,960$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$999.6	303	51.8%157 W · 146 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under	52c	1,598$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.92	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under	51c	1,471$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	49c	1,387$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$707.6	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Under	51c	1,193$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.3	321	51.7%166 W · 155 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	49c	1,160$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.83	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	900$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	49c	342.01$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.48	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	51c	301$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.36	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under	49c	288.67$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.45	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Over	73c	268.86$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.57	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	52c	192$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	51c	178.16$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.24	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ead…16d3backed Under	51c	147.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Over	50c	110$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.51	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9202…8ef9backed Under	52c	81.73$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	136	46.3%63 W · 73 L	-10.1wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	50c	76$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…3c43backed Over	49c	59.06$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	50c	54$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fdc…6d51backed Under	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Under	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under	53c	43$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.79	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc39c…416dbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda09…293ebacked Under	30c	37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x254f…2fb8backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Under	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebb…4c67backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	41c	24.36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.29	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Under	51c	23.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	55c	18.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event