MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0756ecae7d8235ad5c38d8a04285ac30ee9f3a958e55671c5d4138c977b84dce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 13,603$5,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,577.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 11,298$6,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,632.3 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 9,350$5,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,927.17 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 8,849$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b9e3backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 3,450$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 2,124$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.1 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Seattle Mariners | 3c | 2,055$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 1,663$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 1,500$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 420$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 299$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 252$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…ed47backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 169.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 149.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 133.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 91.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…a25cbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 82.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 72c | 79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 73.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 59.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 58.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 45.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d0…1f7abacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 41.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 38.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 28.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 25.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-5.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.