MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb86edf1384db02935933e00ef52d7b40e19a4e3a0e9c586abd280ef88880d6c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over | 58c | 1,552$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,129$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 1,109$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 50c | 984.96$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.06 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 11c | 940$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 69c | 809.88$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.32 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 528.31$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 11c | 381.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 56c | 346.82$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.79 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 47c | 339$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 328.24$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 49c | 320$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Under | 53c | 314.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 53c | 308.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.35 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 295.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.94 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 10c | 231.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 229.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 44c | 195.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 180.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 141$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Under | 49c | 111.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 51c | 109$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 99.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 98.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 52c | 97.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 37c | 94.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 46c | 88.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 88.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 86.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 59.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 43c | 56.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 36c | 38.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 53c | 36.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 45c | 30.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 54c | 22.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 53c | 21.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 14.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-5.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.