NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07662d16b1c344f796e440cd32cfae12aff475101356d34ca3587d15783d2048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,479 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 21,080$10,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,327.2 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 8,535$4,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 4,038$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.46 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 2,733$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.72 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 2,389$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.85 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…8905backed Over | 50c | 2,314$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…88cdbacked Over | 50c | 2,306$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 1,328$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.44 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 49c | 1,269$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.91 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 715.49$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.41 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 45c | 555$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 333.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 326.06$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.65 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 240.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 47c | 232.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 215.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 49c | 186$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 47c | 164.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 162.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Under | 51c | 154.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 15c | 153.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 49c | 152.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 70c | 142.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 130.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf150…53ebbacked Under | 51c | 104.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 52c | 103.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Under | 51c | 59.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…93bbbacked Under | 50c | 43.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 38.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…3faabacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 51c | 38.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 47c | 28.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 51c | 26.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44e…c6b8backed Under | 59c | 21.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9f…e763backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…653cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…f08abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…0289backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Grizzlies won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Cedric Coward: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. PistonsPistons won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 241.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 242.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 243.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 244.5Under won
- Isaiah Stewart: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-15.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-16.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Pistons (-17.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Pistons (-18.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Pistons (-19.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Pistons (-20.5)Grizzlies won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.