NFL · resolved market
Spread: NO (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076fe90810342e6309e56812fbd99d7d6f9174f525e0019e836f40ba4c4b420f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- JAXof NO, JAX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b19…3ee1backed NO | 0c | 7,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked NO | 45c | 1,906$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.79 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked JAX | 59c | 1,208$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…0965backed NO | 43c | 673.07$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed JAX | 54c | 369.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed JAX | 56c | 342$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed JAX | 56c | 184.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed JAX | 53c | 113.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed JAX | 49c | 112.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed JAX | 48c | 93.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked JAX | 39c | 59.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed JAX | 67c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed JAX | 38c | 37.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked JAX | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked JAX | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked NO | 44c | 23.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed NO | 47c | 22.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked JAX | 80c | 20.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed JAX | 55c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: NO (-3.5)this page
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 35.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 36.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 37.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. SaintsJaguars won
- Spread: JAX (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-2.5)JAX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.