NFL · resolved market
JAX vs. NO: O/U 35.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c985d02ed208a97328c176f040c44c68553757494b239f4c5e781c075491d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 33c | 10,933$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 70c | 6,247$4,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.13 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 51c | 4,298$2,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 2,961$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 69c | 1,474$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.1 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 1,331$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.71 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 1,309$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.62 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 65c | 1,148$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.09 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 1,024$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.16 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 51c | 965$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.5 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 862$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.38 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Over | 56c | 740.07$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 62c | 510.99$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.74 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 59c | 359.77$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.03 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 65c | 337.75$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Under | 31c | 323.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 61c | 311.8$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c0…f7f6backed Under | 31c | 209.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 31c | 191.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Under | 36c | 187.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 65c | 148.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 47c | 126.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 65c | 124.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 109.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 47c | 87.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be2…e4c7backed Under | 31c | 67.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Under | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 68c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…0783backed Under | 38c | 41.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 35.5this page
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 36.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 37.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. SaintsJaguars won
- Spread: JAX (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-2.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-3.5)JAX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.