NFL · resolved market
JAX vs. NO: O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8202ed98f93df05695bbcdba809c55bb8d7a880e76c2af0993a55c9787245203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 7,451$3,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,625.07 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 6,206$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,042.05 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 2,780$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.8 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 867$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.45 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 48c | 262.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 41c | 217.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 184.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 149.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Over | 73c | 136.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 53c | 113.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 54c | 92.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 33c | 43.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 60c | 35.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Under | 34c | 35.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 36.5this page
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 35.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 37.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. SaintsJaguars won
- Spread: JAX (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-2.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-3.5)JAX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.