NFL · resolved market
Spread: NO (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x785e5241e4ffda7a735a94e552dd5f50a8616261049f26b670a7c8902cd2f896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- JAXof NO, JAX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed JAX | 49c | 10,319$5,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,265.87 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…3ee1backed NO | 0c | 7,091$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked NO | 51c | 3,950$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.83 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked NO | 51c | 3,664$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.64 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed NO | 51c | 3,062$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.87 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked NO | 47c | 1,235$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.61 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked JAX | 71c | 1,218$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.19 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…b186backed NO | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed JAX | 54c | 719.43$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.06 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0c87backed NO | 28c | 714$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…6721backed JAX | 50c | 637.26$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.63 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked JAX | 55c | 547.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked NO | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed NO | 51c | 289.35$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd494…bfafbacked NO | 28c | 256.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked JAX | 47c | 202.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked JAX | 49c | 130.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked NO | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed NO | 59c | 84.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed NO | 71c | 84.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked JAX | 44c | 83.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed JAX | 53c | 81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NO | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked JAX | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed NO | 59c | 61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…90b2backed NO | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed JAX | 33c | 42.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked JAX | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed JAX | 54c | 37.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed JAX | 48c | 35.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed NO | 48c | 31.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed JAX | 67c | 26.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed JAX | 55c | 24.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed JAX | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: NO (-2.5)this page
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 35.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 36.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 37.5Over won
- JAX vs. NO: O/U 38.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. SaintsJaguars won
- Spread: JAX (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-1.5)JAX won
- Spread: NO (-3.5)JAX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.