Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany vs. France end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0770c8b1d9f89b285c42947494b4a17b84fba367e57e2512d348bde3ff9528bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 74c | 7,235$5,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.03 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 26c | 3,858$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 26c | 3,077$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 22c | 3,077$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.92 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 73c | 1,497$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.76 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 28c | 1,200$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 32cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 26c | 999.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…75e1backed No | 74c | 573.39$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 24c | 422.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 26c | 292.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 74c | 217.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 25c | 175.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…5dd0backed No | 75c | 86.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 16c | 81.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…7e28backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 59.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…ed62backed No | 74c | 52.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 74c | 51.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…9e76backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…4935backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 44.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…eb93backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…f0abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany vs. France end in a draw?this page
- Will France beat Germany?Yes won
- Will Germany beat France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.