Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0820cd70d1c33ffac27ccc0fcea53531e84a0e3d3b7cc6d37ff65ef2fe45a313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 4,455$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,118.3 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 1,866$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 69c | 910$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.9 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 787.91$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.41 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 775.63$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.29 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes | 17c | 590.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.29 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 480$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.59 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Yes | 31c | 375$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 80c | 324.53$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 23c | 269.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed No | 75c | 200.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 12c | 193.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 33c | 143.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 17c | 141.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 82 | 14.6%12 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 59c | 139.87$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 13c | 138.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e81…b4cebacked Yes | 80c | 125.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 80c | 108.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 66c | 104.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed Yes | 15c | 102.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 58c | 90.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 80.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 30c | 76.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…7031backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 61.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Yes | 51c | 59.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 585 | 42.7%250 W · 335 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 48c | 52.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 74c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 32c | 46.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 32c | 32.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 76c | 31.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 69c | 26.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…6db1backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 79c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-30?No won
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.