TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Netsof Bucks, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,613
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,613 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1448…9b9cbacked Nets55c1,818$1,000 inWon+$818.184252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks45c1,668$751 inLost-$750.629,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Nets52c913.75$475 inWon+$438.616339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Bucks47c826.42$388 inLost-$388.4262744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x648c…f456backed Nets53c826.42$438 inWon+$388.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Bucks48c541.67$260 inLost-$26016837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Bucks48c347.92$167 inLost-$16762347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Bucks48c208.33$100 inLost-$10029346.4%136 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46df…b057backed Nets55c181.82$100 inWon+$81.8221164.5%136 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks45c181.82$82 inLost-$81.821,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108c…1691backed Nets55c127.27$70 inWon+$57.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…63b3backed Nets55c116.36$64 inWon+$52.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Bucks47c106.38$50 inLost-$5032750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x623c…dde0backed Bucks48c100$48 inLost-$487149.3%35 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Nets55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.3661056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets80c26$21 inWon+$5.28,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.