NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3700083aeca46a2a7f79faf0c54a03dc7bc208ad0c40e81d90524527dd47b5e

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Bucks, Nets
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $479,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $479,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,552 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Nets	52c	333,657$175,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158,657.35	100	49%49 W · 51 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Bucks	47c	180,976$85,933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85,933.26	267	53.2%142 W · 125 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bucks	47c	100,000$47,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47,000	262	53.8%141 W · 121 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Bucks	49c	12,487$6,118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,118.46	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	48c	9,422$4,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,560.88	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Bucks	49c	5,005$2,453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,452.63	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	49c	4,065$1,986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,079.36	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks	52c	3,846$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Bucks	49c	3,333$1,633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,633.17	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…5862backed Bucks	49c	3,224$1,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bucks	50c	2,789$1,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,388.5	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks	50c	2,500$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks	49c	2,450$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.44	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Bucks	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bucks	47c	2,013$956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$956.16	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked Bucks	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.76	64	42.2%27 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Nets	48c	1,800$864 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$935.99	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb62…f514backed Bucks	52c	1,746$908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$908	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks	51c	1,399$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.19	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa297…8e9bbacked Bucks	49c	1,327$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks	48c	1,167$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.16	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Bucks	51c	968$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.68	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks	48c	859$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.32	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Bucks	53c	755.68$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.51	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Nets	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bucks	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…bdddbacked Nets	52c	289.25$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.04	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nets	50c	215.18$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.52	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Nets	52c	167.31$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.31	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Nets	50c	156$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c6…830cbacked Nets	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Nets	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Bucks	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nets	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Bucks	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bucks	50c	76$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…4dafbacked Nets	51c	72.55$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.55	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks	49c	54.54$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.72	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Bucks	50c	50.62$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.14	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Nets	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8c…686fbacked Bucks	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	244	9.4%23 W · 221 L	-27.5wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x08cc…da60backed Bucks	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Bucks	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Nets	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Bucks	50c	39.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Bucks	51c	39.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Bucks	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Bucks	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Bucks	36c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Bucks	51c	29.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	195	43.1%84 W · 111 L	-12.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7590…d6e0backed Bucks	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Nets	50c	29.22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.61	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	74c	28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bef…b7c2backed Bucks	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e77…ec4ebacked Nets	53c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.86	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddd1…2739backed Nets	53c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.86	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa973…f639backed Nets	53c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.86	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event