NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 216.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52be952641c0aca6796ff7ec04b60e7fae409c66a52d7ac898b5717e4331acfa

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,057 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	35,957$17,259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,259.17	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Under	52c	33,785$17,568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,216.73	293	51.5%151 W · 142 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over	48c	10,000$4,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,799.99	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x039d…5807backed Under	52c	9,615$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,615.38	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e4e…498abacked Under	52c	5,596$2,910 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,686.15	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	50c	2,282$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,135.59	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	50c	2,010$1,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,005.1	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	53c	1,415$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Over	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	48c	928$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.44	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under	52c	865.38$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$415.38	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	48c	583$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.84	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	52c	499.94$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239.97	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over	48c	392$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.16	430	52.3%225 W · 205 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Over	48c	94.94$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.57	164	47.6%78 W · 86 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Over	49c	94$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.06	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	48c	88$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.24	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cf2…5803backed Over	53c	76.58$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.59	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfca6…9553backed Over	48c	51.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.85	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	311	51.1%159 W · 152 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under	50c	33.46$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.73	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8188…a6b5backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 216.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event