NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 217.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7050a6310c52b1dd530af85d3f2b2952e432454b9539b120defdfebbac3c9107

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,246 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	23,425$11,262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,261.97	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	51c	11,056$5,619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,437	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	51c	8,570$4,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,199.61	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	53c	5,184$2,747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,436.33	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Under	55c	2,727$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,227.27	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Over	48c	2,708$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	54	37%20 W · 34 L	-6.4wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Under	54c	2,574$1,390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,184.03	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-4.6wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Over	49c	2,017$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.33	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	50c	1,967$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$983.39	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	47c	1,734$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.98	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Under	54c	1,481$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.48	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Over	54c	1,322$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.74	416	52.2%217 W · 199 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Over	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	45c	989.39$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.23	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Under	49c	873.47$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.47	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	417	42%175 W · 242 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Over	55c	363.64$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	111	55%61 W · 50 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over	55c	182.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	45c	147.88$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.81	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x086f…8bc3backed Over	47c	101$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.47	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…4741backed Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	60	65%39 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Over	47c	74.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	29c	60.25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c86…288cbacked Over	73c	54.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	92	42.4%39 W · 53 L	-6.9wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43fc…51c6backed Over	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.28per pick	58cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	49c	43.35$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	38.66$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.71	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	49c	37.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.13	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6f8…256ebacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	47c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.49	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4350…79fabacked Over	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186b…1148backed Over	55c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	121	59.5%72 W · 49 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Nets: O/U 217.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event